Tropical Storm Dorian is rapidly moving west-northwest across the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean this morning. Dorian remains rather disorganized. The quick forward movement along with dry air swirling into the storm is preventing any intensification. Dorian should continue on an WNW track over the next couple of days as it rounds the bottom of a ridge of high pressure currently centered over the northern Atlantic Ocean.
Several models open Dorian up as a tropical wave 3-4 days from now as stronger wind shear interacts with the storm. A few models intensify Dorian into a strong tropical storm as it approaches the Bahamas. All models show a general WNW track over the next five days whether the storm strengthens or dissipates.
The official track from the National Hurricane Center is a blend of these scenarios.
