Acadiana's weather has become hotter and drier as the month of July comes to a close with drier than normal conditions likely to continue through mid-week. Rain chances look to stay in the 10% range but should increase back to the 20-30% range by the weekend.
Meanwhile tropical waves near the Caribbean and the Atlantic have been looking more robust over the last couple of days. A very weak area of low pressure associated with a disturbance in the mid-tropical Atlantic has been garnering more interest from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The NHC is currently assigning a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours, but conditions could become more conducive for development thereafter. Tropical models are keeping this disturbance on a low-latitude trajectory meaning this system could become a Eastern and Central Caribbean threat in the 5-8 day time frame.
Meanwhile, closer to home, a robust tropical wave approaching the Northeastern Caribbean is expected to travel west-northwesterly, perhaps toward the Bahamas and Northwestern Caribbean by this weekend. This system could also add to rain chances to southern Florida by this weekend.
While the tropical season did get off to a very early start, it has been very quiet in the Atlantic Basin over the last month in part due to excessive tropical inhibiting Saharan Dust in the Atlantic, and rather unfavorable upper wind conditions and lack of significant disturbances across portions of the Caribbean and Gulf.
Climatologically Atlantic Basin tropical activity ramps upward dramatically after the first week or two of August. It remains to be seen whether this year will follow suit.
Atlantic Disturbance:
Tropical Models:
Caribbean Disturbance: